Copenhagen Climate Summit - What's at Stake?

 A new (climate) deal struggles from the gate

More than 15,000 officials representing 192 governments will attend the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Copenhagen this coming December in the hope to sign a new agreement on a worldwide reduction of CO2 emissions.

The preliminary negotiations that took place in Germany’s former capital Bonn at the beginning of August 2009 do not bode well, however. Participants and Climate Change activists registered disappointment at the lack of progress made. According to the European activist network EurActiv, the chances for a new comprehensive “climate deal” in Copenhagen are dwindling.

The Chinese Climate Ambassador Yu Qingtai told Reuters: “There was a general feeling of dissatisfaction about the level of effort the industrial countries are willing to shoulder." He accused wealthy countries of shifting the burden onto developing countries by asking them to undertake actions that could harm their economic growth.

The agreements of the Kyoto Protocol, adopted in Kyoto, Japan in 1997, and ratified in 2005, were supposed to cover the period from 2008 to 2012, using 1990 as the base year for calculations of CO2 emissions. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to stabilize and reconstruct “greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” (Kyoto Protocol). The United States is a signatory of the Kyoto Protocol (thanks to Al Gore), but it never ratified the treaty, saying the fact that China and India were not part of the deal meant too high a risk for the US economy.

2012 is only two-and-a-half years away, and worldwide CO2 emissions continue to rise. So everyone knows that a new framework is needed, but the preparatory negotiations are proving to be extremely difficult. Above all, the abyss between the wealthy developed nations and poor developing countries seems to be growing. The main obstacle for a Copenhagen deal is money: Poor countries that have barely come out of industrialization insist that wealthier countries who, in their view, are the ones responsible for climate change, must help them obtain the required technology to reduce CO2 emissions. But the EU and other industrialized nations want to see all countries pay a share, or at least develop strategies for emissions reduction. The EU has also offered to increase its already agreed-upon reduction of 20% to 30%--but only if others, especially the US, follow suit.

Sweden’s Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, a member of the conservative center-right ‘Moderate Coalition Party’ who holds the EU Presidency for six months from July to December 2009, has placed Climate Change on the top of his agenda. “The economic crisis must not stop us. Cimate Change is happening faster and more massively than we assumed” he told the German newspaper DIE ZEIT in July. He said if needed he would take all his colleagues by the hand to surprise the summit in Denmark with a visit of the joint European leadership.

Interestingly, Denmark, the host of the summit, is the only signatory of the Kyoto Protocol who actually exceeded its goals: Denmark was supposed to reduce its CO2 emissions by 20%, and has actually achieved a reduction of 22.2%. Germany, too, has a positive CO2 balance. China, not a signatory of the Kyoto protocol, has increased its CO2 emissions by 150%, India by 103%. Overall, the EU remains (with a combined value of -2.6%) far below its total obligations of -8%. In that same period, US emissions have increased by 15.8%.

Fifteen days of negotiation remain. There will be another meeting in Bangkok at the end of September. The last meeting is scheduled for Barcelona at the end of November. In the meantime, activists around the world are mobilizing to put pressure on their governments to act. The global web movement Avaaz is circulating apetition worldwide. US environmentalist Bill McKibben has foundedwww.350.org, an organization that aims to raise awareness worldwide about Climate Change. [350 is the number that leading scientists say is the safe upper limit for carbon dioxide -- measured in parts per million -- in our atmosphere.] 350.org has declared October 24 the “International Day of Climate Action." Brandeis has plans to contribute to that day's events.

Here is howGreenpeace International sums it up: The Copenhagen Summit must agree to legally binding, timely and deep emissions reductions that are ambitious, equitable and fair. These must be supported by funding mechanisms and policies that enable a sustainable energy future, protect our magnificent natural forests and create a renewable energy revolution, while meeting the needs of the poor.” Climate Scientists expect that CO2 emissions worldwide will have to be reduced by 80% in 2050 to avoid a rise in temperatures beyond 2 degrees Celsius. Even 80% by 2050, some warn, may be too little too late.

For more details on the Copenhagen Conference visithttp://en.cop15.dk/.

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